We keep going out of stock when ops runs promotions. How do you balance aggressive selling with supply chain?

No matter how well you plan, if ops doesn’t execute against the plan, it’s all useless. The core is getting ops involved in the forecast.

The core conflict you described — ops wants to push, supply chain can’t keep up — is usually a negotiation over inventory levels. Sales is the fastest-moving part of the business, so in most setups, ops drives replenishment decisions.
Our process: our ERP pushes replenishment proposals weekly. Ops has to confirm or adjust by a deadline. This forces ops to think about sales forecasts and communicate any changes — especially if they’re planning a BD, off-Amazon push, or ad ramp. If a quantity deviates by more than 20%, we require a reason.
On safety stock: we calculate based on:

• Safety stock = (Max daily sales – Avg daily sales) × lead time
• Base stock = Avg daily sales × lead time

The real variable is the sales forecast. If you’re confident, you add more. If not, you keep it tight. Profit margin, category volatility, and product lifecycle all factor in — higher margin, more stable products get larger buffers.

A few thoughts:
On tying restock to ops targets: absolutely. If your target is 500 units, you need 500 units in stock. Stock is ammunition. Doesn’t matter how good your aim is if you run out of bullets.
On the 1.5x multiplier: I think the problem isn’t the multiplier — it’s forecast accuracy. If your forecast is accurate, 1.1x is plenty. If you’re still going out of stock with 1.5x, the forecast itself is off. Running out of stock just means you missed some sales. But overstocking? That’s real money sitting in a warehouse.
On capping promotion intensity: if ops can generate sales, the right answer is fixing supply chain, not slowing down ops. We’re on Amazon to sell. Don’t get it backwards.
On multiple forecast scenarios: you can run three scenarios, but you still have to pick one to execute. What matters more is having contingency plans:

• If sales slow: discount timeline — 20% at 3 months, 50% at 4 months, liquidate by 6 months. Don’t let hesitation cost you.
• If inventory runs short: do you have suppliers who can expedite? Can you airship? Can you split shipments into weekly batches?
• If stockout happens:don’t panic. Keep conversion stable — don’t raise price, don’t FBM unless it converts well. Pull the listing cleanly if needed.

You can’t hit perfect inventory every time. The goal is to avoid major stockouts or major overstocks. Paying a little extra in storage during slow seasons is cheaper than rebuilding momentum after a stockout.
On the core conflict: if ops is selling and making money, the company should be figuring out how to support them, not slowing them down. Keep building supply chain relationships. Over time, suppliers get more flexible.

The restock logic you described is based on historical data — it doesn’t factor in future targets. That’s the disconnect. Restock quantities are basically the projected sales for the upcoming period, so ops needs to be in the loop.
On tying restock to ops targets: yeah, we do that. Ops fills out a projected sales forecast along a timeline, and we back into the inventory needed (existing + in-transit subtracted). They have to commit to that forecast — once it’s locked, they execute against it.
On the 1.5x rule: I don’t think it’s about the multiplier being too high or low. It’s just a blunt tool. Instead of a flat multiplier, we build in a buffer based on lead time uncertainty — like an extra 15 days of safety stock on a 40-day shipping cycle.
On capping promotion intensity: absolutely. If ops pushes without checking inventory, that’s on them. Avoiding stockouts should be part of ops’ performance metrics. If they see a risk, they need to act to minimize the outage window.
On multiple forecast scenarios: probably overkill. If you’re testing one product it’s fine, but for a portfolio it becomes a mess. Better to build a solid restock logic and focus on getting the forecast right.
How we sync ops and supply chain:ops owns the sales forecast. Supply chain executes against it. That’s the cleanest split.
Pre-launch review: we align on the target ranking and work backward to inventory.
Historical vs ops targets: we restock based on ops targets — but that only works if ops has a track record of accurate forecasting.
On sudden spikes:those are forecast failures on ops’ side. The spike might come from a deal, influencer, or ad push that wasn’t planned. That’s not just a supply chain issue — it’s a process breakdown. We review those cases together and figure out what went wrong.

Honestly, just give ops control over restocking. Then they’ll know exactly when they can push.